Friday, January 9, 2009

Buy Satyam at prices between Rs. 20 and Rs. 25 today for a long term profit

Starting with my disclosure, I just turned bullish on Satyam at Rs. 21.05. My volumes are insignificant and I want to hide my trade data to create a deliberate miscalculation in the reader's mind that I might secretly be a billionaire.
Today I'm betting that Satyam will continue as a going concern.I'm also assuming that Ram Mynampati and various other folks in the Satyam management will continue to be on the Company's rolls. I would put margins in the Indian IT services industry at close to around 28% operating margin when INR/USD is at around 42. Satyam's market cap today is close to Rs. 707 crore. Last year's annual revenue was well above Rs. 8000 crore. If the company continues, then my money will come back at most in a year's time, by the most conservative possible estimate.
Satyam has frequently delivered quarterly net profits worth hundreds of crores. It's stock price is down from around Rs. 170 levels during the recent controversy, and much higher levels before the Maytas campaign began in earnest. Satyam is a good buy.

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